Visa Q&A

This week we shall focus on common visa and migration questions that come to us by text or email from our Manila Times readers, listeners and viewers of “Amerika, Atbp.” on Radyo Agila and Net 25 of Eagle Broadcasting Corp. I selected “textions”—questions sent by text and emails that represent the most common questions about visas and migration matters. The textions are published here as they were sent and received.

From Metro Naga, Bicol – “Ganda hapon anoh pho, kunin q kung my kapatid aq s u.s.a,. sya mag sponsor skin” Cezar M. Jr.

Only US Citizen Siblings 21 years old and above could sponsor their brothers or sisters regardless of age. There is a 65,000 annual quota worldwide not just for Philippine applicants. As of November 2013, the State Department report states that of the total 4,299,635 immigrant visa applicants all over the world, close to 58 percent are in the Fourth Family Preference category or 2,473,114. There are 171,397 F4 applicants from the Philippines. As of October 2014, F4 petitions filed on or before April 8, 1991 are being scheduled for interviews. This means if you have a US citizen brother or sister who sponsors you on an F4 petition for you now, you would have to wait about 23 to 24 years before you could be scheduled for interview at the US Embassy in Manila.

Email from Caryl P – “I would really wanto be able to work in Australia but I think getting an Australian sponsor is hard? Is that right? Do I have other options, say if I want to migrate?”

For those intending to work in Australia, having a qualified employer to sponsor you on a work visa is not a piece of cake. Currently Australia requires sponsoring employers and applicants to meet stringent requirements for recruitment: 1) You are being sponsored in an occupation that is on Australia’s Skilled Occupations List; (2) experience in the job being offered; (3) English proficiency (4) must be licensed or registered if the job requires it; (4) salary must be equal or more than what is being paid your Australian counterpart and (5) employer shall pay for all the costs of recruitment. To migrate, you must first meet three requirements (1) Get evidence of English proficiency and (2) Be considered the equivalent of your Australian counterpart through assessment of your qualification and credentials (3) Your occupation must be on Australia’s Skilled Occupations List, Schedule 1 or 2.

From San Pedro, Laguna. Last 4 digits 5850: “asawa k nsa US ngpkasal n s pnay nurse iniwan ako, nadeny aplay k pginterview s US embcy n sponsor ng inaplayan k s agency n mgpaalis sken”

On the first issue of your husband having left you and married a Filipina RN, the assumption here is that your husband was issued a temporary visa e.g., a tourist visa; then was able to legally terminate his marriage to you and upon obtaining the final decree of divorce, married the Pinay Nurse. The second issue of your work visa being denied by a US consul you were not able to specify what type of visa you applied for: H-2B (temporary in nature and temporary in need) or H-1B, temporary need but permanent in nature, plus the job being offered must require a Bachelor’s degree

Whether H-1B or H-2B, they are subject to the US doctrine of dual intent which states that all non-immigrants seeking admission into the United States are presumed to be intending immigrants unless they can prove otherwise.

Then there is the issue of a potential misrepresentation of material facts. If the texter disclosed the fact that she is married but did not indicate that her husband is in the US; and the visa officer discovered on the consular database that the husband was issued a visa, applied for permanent resident status and could apply for US citizenship later, then the US Consul would presume that the applicant is not telling the truth simply to get a US visa. In this scenario the visa application will be denied for willful fraud. This type of refusal will result in permanent inadmissibility to the US, which bars anyone from entering the US on any type of visa.

From Gina of Batangas City: “ano po bng mga requirements para sa fiancee s US.tnx po”

Only US citizens can sponsor a fiancé(e). Both must be eligible to get married in the United States within 90 days of the foreign fiancé(e)’s admission into the United States on a K-1 visa. The US citizen must be ably employed and with sufficient financial resources to sponsor the future spouse. Unlike those applying for immigrant visas as the spouse of a US citizen, the sponsor cannot ask another US citizen or green card holder family member/relative or friend to be a joint or co-sponsor, if the US citizen sponsor does not have enough income or is not employed at all.

Second, the US citizen and the foreign fiancé(e) must have met in person within the last two years immediately prior to the filing of the I-129F Fiancé(e) petition. In rare cases, the physical meeting requirement could be waived if the US citizen can prove that he or she could not travel to the Philippines for reasons beyond his or her control. Another option is for a person who is already sponsored as the spouse of a US citizen who would want to apply for a K-3 fiancé (e) visa instead.

The K3 visa was signed into law as part of the Legal Family Equity Act (LIFE) Act on December 21, 2000, at a time when processing of the approval of the spouse visa of US citizens were taking a long time. To reunite families faster, the US Congress created the K-3 category to enable the foreign spouse to join the US spouse faster as a nonimmigrant (K3) visa instead of waiting for the immigrant visa at a foreign consular post. Once the pending I-130 spouse petition is approved, the K-3 visa spouse can apply for adjustment of status to that of a green card holder in the United States.

You can send your textion to the Immigrant Visa Center’s Visa Response Team at 0917-534-8472.

source:   Manila Times Column of Crispin Aranda

SSS sets up new retirement fund

THE SOCIAL Security System (SSS) has opened a new savings mechanism offering its members another way to build their retirement nest egg.

The SSS Personal Equity and Savings Option (PESO) Fund is a voluntary retirement savings fund that SSS members with extra money can contribute to, on top of their regular contributions as SSS members.

The minimum PESO Fund contribution is P1,000 per year, although members can put in as much as P100,000 annually. 

The SSS said the scheme offers guaranteed earnings at rates higher than what a regular savings bank account currently offers.

A larger portion of the fund, or 65%, is allocated for retirement savings and earns income based on five-year Treasury yields.

Asked whether there is demand for the product among SSS members, SSS president and chief executive officer Emilio S. de Quiros said: “We should be generating very good amounts here.”

The private pension fund has a total of 31.4 million members as of June. Of this, about 23 million are employees, 4.17 million are self-employed, 3.25 million are voluntary members, and 983,262 are OFWs.

source:  Businessworld

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By the numbers: Software piracy

DATA from the Business Software Alliance (BSA) showed that the Philippines has a 70% software piracy rate. The commercial value of pirated software was estimated at $338 million.

Worldwide, statistics suggest an inverse relationship between a country’s income level and its software piracy rate. It showed that low-income countries have a higher software piracy rate compared to the high and middle-income countries. 

BSA also compiled data on the return on investment (ROI) for properly licensed software and pirated software for each income class. The statistics showed that returns were greater in emerging markets because every extra dollar spent on licensed software in low-income countries has a greater marginal impact because the user base for legitimate software in these countries is low. -- Virgil S. Villanueva


source:  Businessworld

Pinoys among Asia Pacific’s most positive

When it comes to thinking positively, Philippines ranks the highest in the Asia Pacific region, says a study.

The Gallup-Healthways Global Well-Being Index for 2013, a study that seeks to measure people’s perceptions of their well-being, claimed Philippines registered a high 32 percent—greater than Asian and global average of 14 percent and 17 percent, respectively. 

"Filipinos have historically reported high positivity related to employment, with 65 percent reporting that it was a good time to find a job in 2013 and 63 percent reporting so in 2011,” the study noted in its findings.

According to Gallup’s statement, the index is organized into five elements:

Purpose: liking what you do each day and being motivated to achieve your goals
Social: having supportive relationships and love in your life
Financial: managing your economic life to reduce stress and increase security
Community: liking where you live, feeling safe, and having pride in your community
Physical: having good health and enough energy to get things done daily

Globally, Philippines ranked 38th among those who were thriving in three or more of the five elements with 24 percent. 

Panama is considered the happiest country in the world in 2013, with 61 percent, followed by Costa Rica (44), Denmark (40), Austria (39) and Brazil (39).

The war-stricken Afghanistan had the lowest level of those thriving in three or more elements, registering only 1 percent.

Poor financial well-being 

Despite gains in purpose well-being, the Philippines ranked poorly in terms of financial well-being. 

The said index noted that Filipinos are "suffering (30 percent) than thriving (18 percent) in this element, and suffering is more prevalent among rural residents (35 percent) than urban residents (24 percent)."

The Aquino government trumpets the Philippines as a rapidly growing economy in Southeast Asia.

Its rich neighbors—Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and Taiwan—have the highest thriving levels of financial well-being in the region.

High community, social well-being overall

The Philippines also enjoyed a high level of community well-being at 42 percent—versus the regional (25) and global (26) figures.

The findings also cited the Philippines’ thriving social well-being at 35 percent, still higher than Asia overall (19) and the rest of the world (23).

In conclusion, the findings recognized the Philippines’ unique opportunity to capitalize on its assets—a balanced economic outlook and Filipinos' resilience against external shocks
during the financial crisis—and on the population’s high sense of purpose to improve financial well-being and address the effects of rising inequality, poverty, and underemployment.

The Global Index surveyed the Philippines before November 8, 2013, the day Typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), considered the strongest storm to hit land, happened.

 source:  Yahoo!

Billionaires in Asia see fast growth in wealth

SINGAPORE -- Asia’s billionaires, led by Chinese tycoons, enjoyed the fastest increase in their wealth this year compared to their peers in the rest of the world, a report said Wednesday.

The combined wealth of Asia’s billionaires grew 18.7% from last year to $1.41 trillion, said the report by Wealth-X, a research firm specializing in ultra-high net worth individuals, and Swiss bank UBS.

Asia has added 52 new US-dollar billionaires so far this year, bringing the region’s total to 560, with China accounting for 33, or 63.5%, of the new entrants to the exclusive club.

Although Asia was in third place behind Europe and North America in terms of the total number of billionaires, those from Asia recorded the fastest growth in wealth of any region in the world.

Asia accounted for 30% of the net increase in global billionaire wealth in 2014, the report said.

It said the number of billionaires worldwide rose 7.0% from the previous year to a record 2,325 -- an increase of 155.

Their combined wealth reached $7.3 trillion, up 12%.

Europe topped the rankings with 775 billionaires, followed by North America with 609, while the Middle East with 154 billionaires came in fourth place behind Asia.

PHILIPPINES IN ASIA TOP 10
“The rise of Asia as a global economic powerhouse has already started, and the performance of the region’s billionaires illustrates just how strong the region is and how many opportunities for wealth accumulation it offers,” the report said.

Most of Asia’s billionaires made their fortune from within the region mainly from real estate and industrial conglomerates.

Only 11% of them have amassed their wealth through finance, banking and investment, a percentage “much lower than in other regions,” the same report added.

Asian billionaires are also the youngest worldwide, with the average age at 61, with only 13% having fully inherited their wealth.

Within Asia, China has the most number of billionaires (190), followed by India (100), Hong Kong (82), Japan (33) and Singapore (32). Taiwan was in sixth place with 29, followed by South Korea (21), Indonesia (19) and Thailand (17).

The Philippines rounded up Asia’s top 10 with 13 billionaires.

Relative to population, Hong Kong topped the list in Asia with 11.2 billionaires per one million people, followed by Singapore with 5.8 billionaires per one million people, the report said. Hong Kong and Singapore ranked fourth and sixth, respectively, worldwide in terms of number of billionaires relative to population. -- AFP

source:  Businessworld

Personal optimism slightly up

OPTIMISM among Filipinos about their personal prospects has risen slightly, the Social Weather Stations (SWS) said, even with less saying that their lives have improved over the past year and that the economy would fare better.

A June 27-30 nationwide survey conducted by SWS found 39% of respondents expecting the quality of their lives to improve in the next 12 months (optimists), compared to the 8% who said otherwise (pessimists). This put net personal optimism score -- or the difference of optimists over pessimists -- at a “very high” +31.

The quarter’s result is an upgrade from the “high” +29 score -- 38% optimists and 9% pessimists -- recorded in a March 27-30 survey. An analyst, however, noted that this rise was hardly significant.

The survey also found 26% of respondents bullish on the economy’s prospects for the year ahead, expecting it would get better, against the 24% who said it would deteriorate, making for a “high” net economic optimism score of +2.

This, however, is still seven points below the also “high” +9% (28% optimistic, 19% pessimistic) seen three months earlier.

It is likewise the lowest net economic optimism score recorded by the SWS under the Aquino administration thus far and since December 2009’s net zero.

The Philippine economy, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, slowed in the first quarter to a downwardly revised 5.6% from the previous year’s 7.7% and October-December 2013’s 6.3%, cutting short eight consecutive quarters of above-6% GDP expansion.

Last Aug. 28, or after the SWS survey was conducted, however, the government reported that economic growth picked up pace last quarter to 6.4%, albeit still slower than the 7.9% print seen in the same period last year.

That brought first-half growth to 6.0% against a 6.5-7.5% official full-year target.

Asked about how their lives had changed over the last 12 months, 22% of the survey respondents said it had improved (gainers) and 37% said it worsened (losers), for a “mediocre” -14 net gainers score.

This, SWS noted, is a downgrade from the “fair” -6 net gainers score (26% gainers, 32% losers) result seen in the March survey. This is also the lowest net gainers score of the Aquino administration to date, albeit just a tad worse than the previous low of -13 seen in December 2013.

The survey research institution classifies net personal optimism scores of +30 and above as “very high,” while those from +20 to +29 are “high.” The +10 to +19 range, which contains the historical median and mode, is “fair,” +1 to +9 “mediocre,” zero to -9 “low” and -10 and below “very low.”

In the case of net optimism about the economy and gainers/losers -- with scores, historically speaking, having been highly negative -- -30 and below is classified as “very low” and -20 to -29 is “low.” Zero to -9 is “fair,” with the SWS saying a slightly negative score is already better than normal, while -10 to -19 is “mediocre.” Scores of +1 to +9 are “high,” while +10 and above is considered “very high.”

A movement from one classification to another is called by the SWS as either an upgrade or a downgrade.

The report showed that the two-point rise in net personal optimism in the June survey was primarily driven by upgrades in scores in Mindanao and Metro Manila.

Mindanao’s net optimism score climbed seven points to a “very high” +33, up from the “high” +26 recorded in the March round of the survey.

In Metro Manila, net personal optimism likewise rose by one grade to a “very high” +33, up four points from the previous quarter’s “high” +29.

The score in Balance Luzon was steady from last March at a “very high” +32. Net optimism also stayed high in the Visayas at +27, up three points from March’s +24.

By socioeconomic class, net personal optimism saw an upgrade in class D, or the masa, to a “very high” +32 from the “high” +29 at end-March.

In class E, the score stayed at a “high” +28 in the June survey, inching up from +27 in March.

Also, despite a two-point fall to a score of +38 in this round from +40 in March, net personal optimism among the class ABC remained “very high.”

Net optimism about the economy, on the other hand, fell after downgrades were recorded in scores in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, and Mindanao.

The Metro Manila score plunged 24 points to a “mediocre” -14 in the June survey -- the lowest since February 2009’s -18, the SWS noted -- from the “very high” +10 in March, down three grades.

Net economic optimism also slipped one grade to a “fair” -1 in Balance Luzon due to a nine-point fall from March’s “high” +8.

A similar one-notch downgrade was recorded in the score in Mindanao, which fell seven points to a “high” +7, from a “very high” +14.

These downgrades offset the upgrade seen in the net economic optimism score in the Visayas, which settled at a “very high” +13 in June, up six points from the “high” +7 recorded last March.

By socioeconomic class, downgrades were recorded in class ABC (down 12 points to a “high” +3 from a “very high” +15) and class E (down eight points to a “high” +6 from a “very high” +14). Among the masa or class D, net economic optimism score stayed “high” at +1 despite dropping by seven points from the March level.

Lastly, overall net gainers score in the survey was pulled down by downgrades in Balance Luzon (to a “mediocre” -14 from a “fair” -5) and Visayas (to a “very low” -33 from a “mediocre” -13), as well as a decline in the Metro Manila score (down seven points to -9, but still “fair”). The score in Mindanao also stayed “fair” with a two-point gain to -3.

Net gainers score downgrades were also seen across all socioeconomic classes in June. It fell 10 points and two grades to a “fair” net zero from a “very high” +10 among class ABC. In class D or the masa, it declined eight points to a “mediocre” -13 from a “fair” -5, while in class E, the score fell a grade to a “low” -24 from a “mediocre” -11.

Ramon C. Casiple, executive director of the Institute for Political and Electoral Reform, said the rise in the net personal optimism score “is not significant enough.”

“However, economic developments are taking hold. This has impact on perception,” Mr. Casiple noted in a text message.

Hence, he said, “there is a basis” for an upward improvement in optimism among Filipinos in the near future.

“One, [there is] continued GDP growth. Two, job figures are improving,” said Mr. Casiple.

Moving forward, however, the government can still do more, he said.

“It (the government) should make economic growth felt on the ground through jobs, higher wages, lower prices,” he noted.

Meanwhile, Benjamin E. Diokno, economist at the University of the Philippines and former Budget chief, pointed out the drop in net economic optimism.

“The rise in prices of consumer goods clearly contributed to that. Then, utility rates have also been going up. There’s distrust -- it’s like the government is not doing anything to address these issues,” Mr. Diokno said.

source:  Businessworld

China travel advisory starts to bite

TRAVEL and tourism sectors of the country have begun counting the cost of China’s warning last Friday for its citizens to stay away from the Philippines “for the time being.”

Beijing issued its travel advisory after a Chinese teenager who worked in a family-run store in Zamboanga Sibugay was kidnapped and in the face of a plot confirmed by police by criminal groups to attack the Chinese embassy and companies.

“We expect that there will be cancellation of flights,” Benito C. Bengzon, Jr., Department of Tourism (DoT) assistant secretary for International Tourism Promotions, said in a telephone interview yesterday.

“It is too early to tell if our targeted 5 million foreign tourists by the end of 2014 will not be met due to the advisory because we are still consolidating reports from offices abroad, but other markets like Korea, America and Japan are performing well.”

DoT data show foreign visitor arrivals hit 4.68 million last year, up 9.56% from 2012’s 4.27 million. Visitors from China made up the fourth-biggest group by yearend with a 9.1% share at 426,352, up 69.9% from 2012’s 250,883.

“We are looking at new geographic markets like Europe and other Southeast Asian countries, so I think... the [expected] decrease in Chinese visitors due to the advisory... will be compensated,” Mr. Bengzon said.

He added his department had been assured by the national police “that the situation is under control” and has “also asked our offices in China to continue with marketing and promoting the Philippines...”

Latest available DoT data show foreign visitor arrivals edging up 2.22% to 2.433 million last semester from 2.381 million in the same six months last year.

Tourists from China made up the third-largest segment in the first half after South Korea (547,971 visitors) and the United States (389,432), amounting to 226,163 and making up 9.29% of the total.

But while Chinese arrivals were up 13.56% annually, this was a slowdown from the 42.99% year-on-year growth to a preliminary 150,749 total in 2013’s first half.

China’s official advisory and its expected repercussion come amid simmering maritime tensions in the South China Sea, and in the wake of a separate warning last month by the South Korean embassy in Manila of possible impact to investments of a perceived rise in crime against Koreans in the Philippines as of July.

To be sure, Koreans still made up bulk of foreign visitor arrivals last semester at 22.52%, but a graph with the DoT data bared a drop in volume year on year. Official data in the same period last year put the total for these nationals at a preliminary 474,685, 22.13% of the total and up 10.5% from the same six months in 2012.

“With the travel advisory issued by China, the Chinese market will likely rank as no. 4 when it comes to top tourist markets, with Korea being the first, followed by the US and Japan,” John Paul M. Cabalza, president of the Philippine Travel Agencies Association, said in a telephone interview.

“Due to cancellation of flights, then most probably there will be a decrease in foreign tourist arrivals. In effect, resorts and hotels -- which are the end suppliers -- will be gravely affected because if they are starting to cancel their flights to Manila, then they will be cancelling hotel rooms [reservation].”

Airlines flying between the Philippines and China have also begun to hurt.

Juan Lorenzo T. Tañada, vice-president for Corporate Affairs of listed Cebu Pacific operator Cebu Air, Inc., said in a text message yesterday: “Cebu Pacific and Tigerair cancelled all 149 charter flights to and from Mainland China.”

“These charter flights were scheduled from September to December 2014. Total number of passengers in these cancelled charter flights is estimated at about 24,138 passengers,” Mr. Tañada said.

“We estimate impact on tourism revenue would be about P284 million, assuming tourists were to stay four days in the Philippines and spend an average of $66 per day.”

He clarified that Cebu Pacific continues to operate scheduled commercial flights to and from Mainland China.

“It’s hurting our business very much; we’re hoping it can be resolved soon. The problem will be with organized tour groups, which are also a big part of our revenue stream,” Marianne B. Hontiveros, chief executive officer of Philippines Air Asia, Inc., said on the sidelines of a forum in Pasay City yesterday.

AirAsia Zest on Tuesday said it has suspended services between Kalibo, Aklan, on the one hand and Shanghai and Beijing on the other, effective Sept. 18.

“I think the individual citizens are still interested to travel here, but the tour operators of course will follow the advisory. You can’t blame them,” Ms. Hontiveros said.

“The cancellations will come from the tour groups. So, that’s going to hurt us.”

source:  Businessworld

Politics, Boss & the 23%

Two columns ago, I covered convergence and politics then politics and neuromarketing in the hope that doing so would refocus the kind of political communications we can have come 2016. It was not meant only for my colleagues in the profession of political consulting and/or management. It was for general reading to show that communications today is no longer a one-to-one proposition and reaching a target audience, voters, can scientifically be made, efficiently and economically. Whether it is effective is a function of the other side of the equation, the voters themselves, and whether the narratives are believable and candidates can be trusted.

Those two columns are inputs to this because the concept of Boss has been totally reframed as purely an echo chamber for the leader. But before going into that, let me again define politics as I have with my first column in this broadsheet. As I have said in classrooms and various fora where I talked about it, politics is not bad per se. The word politics is derived from the Greek “poli,” meaning ‘citizen’, and the Greek suffix “ics,” which denotes a body of facts or knowledge. So, the word “politics” literally means knowledge of being a citizen. Citizen is value neutral but Boss denotes hierarchy and power. So why is Boss uni-dimensional for BSA3 and yet is negatively viewed by him when some would be critical of his policies, plans and programs?

In the tradition of Harold Laswell, politics is “who gets what, when and how.” Politics is truly an allocation problem. What makes politics bad is partisanship and that sometimes derails the best laid plans and there are so many under the Aquino administration because as the late Dolphy once said, it is easy to win a campaign but hard to govern. Spot on from the funny man who made sense.

The first time the word “Boss” was used in local political discourse was when BSA3 used it in his inaugural address. It was a tweak that reflected a realignment of power, a good political imagery. It was applauded and much appreciated because it redefined relationships where there was none before. It gave context to an overdue angst of a people that wanted to be treated well and cared for by their elected leaders, national and local. Boss of 2010 has no longer been inclusive by 2014, just like the vaunted economic growth. Boss is now an echo chamber where the leader has decidedly removed critics from the pool making them limited to the KKK and kaalyado.

And Boss economically still remains as one with economic power. As former NEDA head Ciel Habito once said in 2011, the “40 richest families on the Forbes wealth list accounted for 76 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth.” Though there was wealth created by economic growth, it was still unequal. That means the Boss being cited may not necessarily be our ordinary Juan Dela Cruz. These are still the traditional oligarchs, the real Bosses!

Recalling the famous quote of the 2012 elections in the US, “there are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what … who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims. … These are people who pay no income tax…and so my job is not to worry about those people. I’ll never convince them that they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives,” Republican candidate Mitt Romney said. In the PH, it appears that the American 47% is the Filipino 23% which former National Treasurer and fellow columnist in Manila Times, Leonor Magtolis-Briones summed up last week as the House Standing Committee on Appropriations approved the national budget for 2015 without cuts. Briones warned that Congress is “now exercising only 23 percent of the power of the purse and that the rest or 77 percent has been usurped by the Palace.”

If the Boss is composed of the 100 Million Filipinos fair and square, members of the House of Representatives should not just look at the 23% of the proposed General Appropriations Act. They should review all funds because they have theoretically the power of the purse. But alas, legislators chose to just look at the 23% as if saying taxation is representation only up to 23%. And they continue to dumb down the taxpayers and the voters, just like the play on the second term.

The proposed 2015 budget is an election budget that is why there are several lump sum items in it. Far from taking budgeting seriously, there is nothing on building resilient communities as a direct lesson from Yolanda. Where geo-hazard areas have been identified, nothing is in the proposed GAA to remove these houses from harms way and build newer communities in safer areas. The policy of no build zones have not been adopted despite of the lessons learned from Yolanda. Is the plan rushed by the Lacson team funded at all in the proposed GAA for 2015?

When only 23% of the proposed GAA has been scrutinized, that’s like saying to taxpayers that we only value your 23%. The principle of taxation without representation is ingrained in our democracy. That our representatives must defend our contribution to this democracy by standing tall and fight to the last centavo of government allocation is not something trifle with. So are we truly the Boss?

Interestingly, a Cabinet official defending lump sum appropriations asked, “how can calamity fund become pork barrel?” Just look at Tacloban and other areas affected by Yolanda and November (a year after Yolanda hit us) is just around the corner. The answers are with your so-called Bosses or would you have forgotten the politics of inclusiveness?

source:  Manila Times

The PCOS accuracy requirement

Comelec prescribed an accuracy rate of 99.995 percent as a response to the requirement of the Election Automation Law that the automated election system perform accurately. This was included in the technical specifications of the PCOS enumerated in the Request for Proposal for the Automation of the 2010 National and Local Elections issued by the Comelec. This requirement is interpreted to mean that a discrepancy of one vote out of 20,000 vote marks between a manual count and PCOS count is acceptable.

In evaluating the PCOS eventually used in the 2010 and 2013 elections, the Comelec conducted a simple test of the machine using a few hundred test ballots with a total of 20,000 vote marks. Having found no discrepancy between the manual count and the PCOS count, the Special Bids and Awards Committee declared the PCOS machine 100 percent accurate.

As required by law, an audit of the PCOS in randomly selected clustered precincts was conducted after the close of election operations on election day. This audit activity is referred to as Random Manual Audit (RMA).

The reported PCOS accuracy rate in 2010 was 99.6 percent or a discrepancy of 80 votes out of 20,000 vote marks between the manual count and PCOS count. In 2013 it was 99.9747 percent or a discrepancy of 5 votes for every 20,000 vote marks between the manual count and PCOS count.

But in both 2010 and 2013 the RMA Team (RMAT) arbitrarily set aside the required 99.995 percent accuracy rate declaring that “Based on ninety-nine percent (99 percent) accuracy rate, the allowable margin of variance was set at one percent (equivalent to less than 10 votes’ difference in absolute value for every 1,000 valid votes counted).” This led me to think: How did the RMAT determine the accuracy rate of 99 percent? What data did the RMAT base it on?

Well, trawling the internet for information, I found a company (http://www.abbyy.com/) that specializes in mark recognition technologies, including optical mark recognition, which is the underlying technology in the PCOS. The company must have a basis to declare and publish a 99.995 percent accuracy rate of its products. That basis must have been the results gathered from exhaustive tests of its products.

In setting aside the 99.995 percent accuracy rate, the 2013 RMAT explained that “Since most of the ‘variance’ can be attributed to human errors or clerical errors, aiming for a higher accuracy rate to as high as 99.995 percent (i.e. 1 vote difference in absolute value for 20,000 valid votes counted) could be statistically improbable.” Revealing. Does it mean that rather than simply assessing the accuracy of the PCOS, the RMAT aimed to match the 99.995 percent accuracy rate? The 2010 and 2013 RMA Reports show that the RMAT went through several iterations when it found that the manual count and PCOS count differed by at least 10 votes Failing to meet its goal, it declared the 99.995 percent accuracy rate statistically improbable to match.

Let’s look at the potential impact of a 99 percent accuracy rate vis-à-vis a 99.995 percent accuracy rate. Let’s assume 52 million registered voters. Let us also assume that 80 percent went to the voting precincts to vote. This means that on election day 41.6 million voters actually voted. Let us further assume that all of them voted for a president or vice president. An accuracy rate of 99 percent, using our assumed numbers, would mean a discrepancy of 416,000 votes between the manual count and the PCOS count. On the other hand, an accuracy rate of 99.995 percent translates to a discrepancy of 2,080 votes between the manual count and the PCOS count. 416,000 vote vis-à-vis 2,080 vote is an ocean of a difference!

Let’s Face IT! The numbers have spoken and numbers don’t lie. The PCOS accuracy findings in the 2010 and 2013 RMA are obviously below the 99.995 percent accuracy rate set by Comelec. The RMAT conveniently avoided to explicitly and unequivocally declare that the PCOS counts did not meet the accuracy rate requirement. Instead, the RMAT, without any basis, lowered the accuracy bar to 99 percent to show that the PCOS accuracy rates in 2010 and 2013 RMA are better than its prescribed level.

Unacceptable!

source: Manila Times Column of Lito Averia

Fixed-asset investments report inflow

FOREIGN investments in fixed assets, factories, and equipment swung to a net inflow in June from a year ago, the Philippines’ central bank yesterday reported, as investors continued to take a favorable view of the economy.

Net foreign direct investment (FDIs) inflows reached $588 million in June, a turnaround from the $26-million net outflows in the same month last year, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said in a statement.

“This developed as increases were registered across FDI major components,” the BSP said.

Bulk of FDIs -- which also help generate more jobs -- was made up of foreign parent’s placements in debt instruments issued by local affiliates amounting to a $459-million net inflow, up by more than threefold from the $108 million recorded in June 2013.

Equity capital investments also reversed a $192-million outflow seen a year ago at $54 million. Most of equity capital placements were channeled to real estate; manufacturing; transportation and storage; mining and quarrying; and administrative and support service activities. Funds came mainly from the United States, Singapore, Japan, Hong Kong, and Germany.

Reinvestment of earnings likewise went up 27% to $75 million from $59 million a year ago.

Results for June brought the first-semester FDI tally to a $3.572-billion inflow, which was 77% higher than the net $2.019 billion registered in the comparable 2013 period.

Increased FDI levels continued to reflect “strong investor confidence in the country’s solid macroeconomic fundamentals.”

Placements in debt instruments in the first half rose to $2.411 billion from $1.204 billion as foreign parent firms lent more to local affiliates to fund existing operations or expansion; net equity capital inflows increased to $762 million from $583 million; and reinvestments reached soared to $400 million from $232 million.

FDIs ended last year with a $3.86-billion net inflow, 20% more than the $3.215 billion recorded in 2012 and breaching the central bank’s full-year forecast of $2.1 billion.

For this year, the BSP expects net FDI inflows to reach $1 billion, down from an initial estimate of $2.6 billion. -- Daryll Edisonn D. Saclag

source:  Businessworld

Philippine investors found most bullish, outward-looking in Asia

FILIPINOS have been identified as Asia’s most optimistic investors for the third consecutive time in a quarterly survey, with investors in the country also found keener on far-off markets compared to peers in the region.

“Philippine investors remain optimistic about investing at home with the sentiment index for domestic investment at 59, the highest in Asia,” Canada-based Manulife Financial Corp. said in a statement on the second-quarter edition of its Manulife Investor Sentiment Index (MISI).

The second-quarter reading for the Philippines rose a notch from 58 in the first quarter. The Philippines had shared the top spot with Malaysia then, after also enjoying the solo top spot in the fourth quarter of 2013 -- the country’s debut in the survey.

In the latest survey, Indonesian investors came next to Filipinos in optimism, recording a sentiment index of 57. Malaysians followed with 48.

Singaporeans’ optimism registered at 15; the Japanese followed with 14; while Chinese optimism was at 11.

There was least optimism in Taiwan and Hong Kong, with the readings for investors from the two markets coming in at -1 and -10, respectively.

Filipino investors’ optimism “was spread across all asset classes in the survey, which all saw increases except cash,” Manulife said.

Property has taken the lead as the most favored asset class, Manulife said.

Sentiment for home property “[was] highest at 75, up one in the quarter, while investment property rose by four points to 74,” the insurer noted, adding that “fixed income saw the biggest increase, up five points to 50.”

Sentiment on stocks also went up by four to 45, while those for mutual funds rose one point to 36.

Manulife noted that “[c]ash was the only asset class to see a decline, down nine to 73, but still remains high.”

“Filipino respondents were generally upbeat, despite weaker-than-expected first quarter 2014 GDP growth and uninspiring corporate earnings for the same period,” Manulife Philippines Chief Investment Officer Aira Gaspar said in the statement.

Philippine economic growth decelerated to 5.7% in the first quarter of this year. The first quarter GDP growth rate was the first time in nine quarters it fell below 6%, and was slower than the 7.7% and 6.3% pace recorded in the first and fourth quarters, respectively, of 2013.

“We believe sentiment was boosted by a credit rating upgrade from Standard & Poor’s and an increase in government spending on much-needed infrastructure projects,” Manulife said.

On May 8, Standard & Poor’s upgraded the country’s credit score a notch further into investment grade -- the country’s best showing so far. S&P raised its rating of the Philippines to BBB with a stable outlook, from the BBB-, also with a stable outlook, issued a year ago.

LESS HOME MARKET BIAS
Manulife noted, though: “Philippines investors seem less affected by home-market bias than any other investors in the survey.”

“Given a selection of single markets, they show most enthusiasm for Canada (76 points) and Japan (73) above the Philippines itself (51), and show least for China (44), which most other Asia investors rank relatively higher,” reported the insurer.

Manulife added that Philippines investors are also most optimistic about Japan and Canada when it comes to growth, “with 19% believing that Japan’s economy will be the fastest growing in the next two years, followed by Canada, China and Australia.”

CONTRASTING
“This contrasts markedly with the average Asia investor, 27% of whom expect China’s economy to grow fastest, followed by much lower expectations for Japan, Australia and Canada.”

“Our research suggests that Philippines investors’ preference for Japan is likely related to Japan’s first-quarter GDP growth which came in at 6.7% on strong consumer demand ahead of the implementation of a new goods and services tax,” Ms. Gaspar said.

Manulife said the MISI is based on interviews with 500 respondents each in Hong Kong, China, Taiwan, Japan and Singapore; in Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, the interviews are conducted face-to-face.

Respondents were described as middle class to affluent investors, at least 25 years old, are the primary decision maker of financial matters in their household, and currently have investment products.

source:  Businessworld